Why Property Growth Rates Must Slow
I recently watched the owners of a house celebrate their sale after achieving a sale price of $1.5m. They had bought it 25 years ago for $150k! It made me wonder whether this type of growth could go on forever. I did some historical research on that same property and found that about 25 years ago, in 1967, it sold for close to $15k. Earlier than that, back in the 1940’s, the land was worth about $1500. There’s an emerging pattern….. every 25 years, the price gets an extra zero added onto it. The question is, can this continue? In 25 years from now, in the year 2042, will the house be worth $15m? What about in 200 years from now, in the year 2317. Will that same house be worth $150 Trillion. Is that even possible? If the Australian GDP grows according to the Reserve Bank target of 2.5% per annum, the entire Australian economy would be the same value as that house!
When you look at it that way, it’s obvious that growth rates cannot be sustained and a correction needs to occur. Growth cannot continue at current rates, and it’s not a question of whether a correction will occur, it’s just a question of when it will occur.